MWD Apocalypse

First, the bad news. The Earth is coming to an end. But all things come to an end. Life is born then dies. And the Earth through solar evolution will come to an end. When the Sun exhausts its nuclear fuel, it will go nova and burn the Earth to a cinder. Geological ages come and go, and they change the nature of life on Earth. This is not the Apocalypse I wish to discuss in this article. Instead, I will be discussing the Apocalypse of human civilization (hereinafter referred to as Apocalyptic). Some Apocalyptic events are likely, some are unlikely, and some may never occur (but still be possible). Some will occur within a near-term time frame (within one hundred years), some will occur in a long-term time frame (one hundred to one thousand years), some may occur thousands of years from now, and some may never occur (but still be possible). How are we to judge the likelihood and time frames of Apocalyptic events. This is what this article shall discuss.

Apocalyptic Events

The following are the Apocalyptic Events in the order that I believe are near term to far term.

Single Points of Failure

There are several single points, or single digit points of failure in our modern world that if they are destroyed or severely damaged could lead to Apocalyptic events. I will not be giving specific examples as I do not want to give anyone any ideas that they would contemplate putting into action.

The first category is in the mining of rare earth minerals that are a key component of much of modern electronic equipment. If these mining operations were destroyed, damaged, or halted it would not be possible to manufacture many pieces of electronic equipment. We need to develop multiple mining operations for these rare earth minerals over several continents where those rare earth minerals are located.

The next category is that there are certain pieces of electrical equipment that are critical to the electricity infrastructure of the world. We must assure that this equipment, and their spare parts, have multiple manufacturers located across several different continents.

We also need to have sufficient spare parts for major electrical and electronic equipment. In the event of a natural or man-made disaster, sufficient spare parts would reduce the recovery time. However, many spare parts for major electrical and electronic equipment are very expensive, and they would have to be stored in such a manner as to not be impacted by natural or man-made disasters. This storage capability could be very expensive.

Finally, the manufacture of modern technology components has been clustering into regional areas in the world. We need to assure that in the event of a natural or man-made disaster there are several regional areas for the manufacture of these technology components and that they are located on several different continents.

The problems of accomplishing this are political and economic. There is a political resistance to doing this as those countries where they are currently located wish to keep these industries under their control for national economic and political leverage purposes. The economic problem is that the labor pool where these things currently occur is cheaper and therefore the cost of manufacture is less. Creating manufacturing in other areas of the world results in higher cost and makes the product less competitive economically. There is also the economic costs of spare parts and the storage of spare parts. Who would be responsible for bearing the burden of these costs? Is it the responsibility of the government or business to assure that enough spare parts are available in the event of a natural or man-made disaster?

These problems must be resolved as it is necessary to do this to assure that in the event of either a natural or man-made disaster we have the capability to recover. If not, we may end up having an Apocalyptic event or civilization being knocked back for thousands of years.

Coronal Mass Ejection

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is a significant release of plasma and magnetic field from the solar corona. They often follow solar flares and are normally present during a solar prominence eruption. The plasma is released into the solar wind, and can be observed in coronagraph imagery.

Coronal mass ejections are often associated with other forms of solar activity, but a broadly accepted theoretical understanding of these relationships has not been established. CMEs most often originate from active regions on the Sun's surface, such as groupings of sunspots associated with frequent flares. Near solar maxima, the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima, there is about one CME every five days.

Coronal mass ejections release large quantities of matter and electromagnetic radiation into space above the Sun's surface, either near the corona (sometimes called a solar prominence), or farther into the planetary system, or beyond (interplanetary CME). The ejected material is a magnetized plasma consisting primarily of electrons and protons. While solar flares are very fast (being electromagnetic radiation), CMEs are relatively slow.

When the ejection is directed towards Earth and reaches it as an interplanetary CME (ICME), the shock wave of traveling mass causes a geomagnetic storm that may disrupt Earth's magnetosphere, compressing it on the day side and extending the night-side magnetic tail. When the magnetosphere reconnects on the nightside, it releases power on the order of terawatt scale, which is directed back toward Earth's upper atmosphere.

Solar energetic particles can cause particularly strong aurorae in large regions around Earth's magnetic poles. These are also known as the Northern Lights (aurora borealis) in the northern hemisphere, and the Southern Lights (aurora australis) in the southern hemisphere. Coronal mass ejections, along with solar flares of other origin, can disrupt radio transmissions and cause damage to satellites and electrical transmission line facilities, resulting in potentially massive and long-lasting power outages.

Energetic protons released by a CME can cause an increase in the number of free electrons in the ionosphere, especially in the high-latitude polar regions. The increase in free electrons can enhance radio wave absorption, especially within the D-region of the ionosphere, leading to Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) events.

Humans at high altitudes, as in airplanes or space stations, risk exposure to relatively intense cosmic rays. The energy absorbed by astronauts is not reduced by a typical spacecraft shield design and, if any protection is provided, it would result from changes in the microscopic inhomogeneity of the energy absorption events

Coronal mass ejections are associated with enormous changes and disturbances in the coronal magnetic field. They are usually observed with a white-light coronagraph. The NASA SOHO, Wind and STEREO spacecraft also continuously observe the Sun and Coronal Mass Ejections.

Coronal Mass Ejections can be categorized into three types; normal, major, and massive. The space around the Sun is vast and CMEs do not often impact the Earth. Normal CME Earthly impacts occur a few times a year and pose no threat, but provide interesting aurora displays. A major CME Earthly impact could lead to even more spectacular auroras, but could also damage satellites, communications and power systems. A massive CME Earthly impact could cause an Apocalyptic event.

When NASA detects that a CME Earthly impact is about to occur it issues a global warning of the expected time and duration of the impact. There wouldn?t be much of a warning time as most CME reach the Earth within a few hours after being ejected from the Sun. And there is no way to predict when a CME will occur, or the path of a CME until it occurs. NASA itself will shut down spacecraft that are in the path of a major CME Earthly impact, and other governments and private organizations will take actions to minimize the effects of a major CME Earthly impact. However, it is not possible to eliminate the impacts of a major CME Earthly impact. There have been a few regional blackouts and electric and electronic equipment failures or destruction due to major CME Earthly impacts. This has led to occasional regional electrical power blackouts and other interruptions of electric and electronic systems. These impacts are usually repaired within a few hours or days but may take a week or more to be fully repaired. A major CME event usually occurs a few times a decade, but the number varies with the cycle of minima and maxima Solar activity.

A massive CME Earthly impact would be an Apocalyptic type event. The amount of charged particles that would envelop the Earth would be such that it would destroy electric and electronic equipment, even if they were turned off and unplugged. These charged particles would directly feed the electrical and electronic circuits and pathways and overload them resulting in a short circuit to the equipment. If a massive CME struck the Earth it could mean the end of human civilization. Today, all human civilization is dependent on electricity and electronics. Power lines, generators, and transformers would be burned out unless protected (and most are not protected). Transportation systems would come to a halt as they are dependent on electricity and electronics. Automobiles, trucks, trains, airplanes, and ships would be rendered inert with the loss of their electricity and electronics systems. All communications systems, radio, television, telephone and cell phones, as well as the Internet would be destroyed. All water and sewer systems would not function. There would be no electricity for homes, buildings, shopping facilities, hospitals, etc. No way to transport food and drink from the source to the consumer, and food and drink supplies would rapidly be exhausted. Starvation for most of humanity would be the result, and those that didn?t starve would be subject to disease outbreaks as there would be no way to treat them. This would also cause mass riots and mass murders as the human population fought over food and drink supplies. For many, suicide would be preferable to dying of starvation or disease. Most of humanity would be wiped out. Indeed, the only humanity to survive would be those close to food and water supplies that could sustain them through the crisis, and they would have to resort to manual efforts to hunt and fish, grow food, and provide for water. All urban and suburban locations would be massively impacted, and most rural areas would be severely impacted. It would take centuries if not millennia for human civilization to recover. An interesting article on massive CMEs is ?What Would Happen if a Massive Solar Storm Hit the Earth??, or my own fictional story about this type of event. A massive CME Earthly impact is truly an Apocalyptic event.

So, what are the chances of a massive CME striking the Earth? This has happened in the past, but as human civilization was not dependent on electricity or electronics the impact was negligible. The last massive CME Earthly impact occurred in 1859 (known as the Carrington Event of 1859). A time when the most advanced technology was the telegraph. This event almost destroyed the telegraph system as many telegraph lines were burned out and many electrical telegraph receivers/transmitters were fused and destroyed. This telegraph equipment was either repaired or replaced over the next several years and only had a minor impact on human civilization. A YouTube Video of the Carrington Event of 1859 provides more information on this event and massive CME Earthly impact.

However, a massive CME Earthly impact almost knocked us back to the Stone Age on July 23, 2012, as this was a massive CME that ripped through Earth?s orbit and narrowly missed us. A massive CME generally occurs once every 500 years but that does not mean they occur in 500-year intervals. They could bunch close together and then not occur for many centuries. There is no way to predict when the next massive CME will strike the Earth.

What can be done to prevent or minimize the impacts of a massive CME strike? Not much, and at very great cost. Electricity and electronics must be enclosed in a Faraday cage (see below) to prevent harm. Critical spare parts would have to be stored in a Faraday cage for replacement purposes after a massive CME strikes the Earth. And as technology is constantly changing the spare parts would have to be replaced with newer spare parts. The cost of enclosing even the most critical electricity and electronics systems in a Faraday cage would be in the billions of dollars. The cost to construct Faraday cages for the storage of spare parts, and the costs of the spare parts, could be in the trillions of dollars. This could also take a decade or more to accomplish.

Of all the Apocalyptic events in this article, a massive CME Earthly impact event is the one I am most worried about. I am worried because this will happen, and probably within the next century, and maybe even tomorrow. As there is nothing we can to prevent this and not much we can do to alleviate the impacts, this is the most likely end of human civilization.

Faraday Cage

A Faraday Cage or Faraday shield is an enclosure used to block electromagnetic fields. A Faraday shield may be formed by a continuous covering of conductive material or in the case of a Faraday cage, by a mesh of such materials. Faraday cages are named after the English scientist Michael Faraday, who invented them in 1836.

A Faraday cage operates because an external electrical field causes the electric charges within the cage's conducting material to be distributed such that they cancel the field's effect in the cage's interior. This phenomenon is used to protect sensitive electronic equipment from external radio frequency interference (RFI). Faraday cages are also used to enclose devices that produce RFI, such as radio transmitters, to prevent their radio waves from interfering with other nearby equipment. They are also used to protect people and equipment against actual electric currents such as lightning strikes and electrostatic discharges, since the enclosing cage conducts current around the outside of the enclosed space and none passes through the interior.

Faraday cages cannot block stable or slowly varying magnetic fields, such as the Earth's magnetic field (a compass will still work inside). To a large degree, though, they shield the interior from external electromagnetic radiation if the conductor is thick enough and any holes are significantly smaller than the wavelength of the radiation. For example, certain computer forensic test procedures of electronic systems that require an environment free of electromagnetic interference can be carried out within a screened room. These rooms are spaces that are completely enclosed by one or more layers of a fine metal mesh or perforated sheet metal. The metal layers are grounded to dissipate any electric currents generated from external or internal electromagnetic fields, and thus they block a large amount of the electromagnetic interference. See also electromagnetic shielding. They provide less attenuation from outgoing transmissions versus incoming: they can shield EMP waves from natural phenomena very effectively, but a tracking device, especially in upper frequencies, may be able to penetrate from within the cage (e.g., some cell phones operate at various radio frequencies so while one cell phone may not work, another one will).

A common misconception is that a Faraday cage provides full blockage or attenuation; this is not true. The reception or transmission of radio waves, a form of electromagnetic radiation, to or from an antenna within a Faraday cage is heavily attenuated or blocked by the cage, however, a Faraday cage has varied attenuation depending on wave form, frequency or distance from receiver/transmitter, and receiver/transmitter power. Near-field high-powered frequency transmissions like HF RFID are more likely to penetrate. Solid cages generally attenuate fields over a broader range of frequencies than mesh cages.

Climate Change

Climate Change is a change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns when that change lasts for an extended period of time (i.e., decades to millions of years). Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or in the time variation of weather within the context of longer-term average conditions. Climate change is caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain human activities have been identified as primary causes of ongoing climate change, often referred to as global warming. There is no general agreement in scientific, media or policy documents as to the precise term to be used to refer to anthropogenic forced change; either "global warming" or "climate change" may be used.

Scientists actively work to understand past and future climate by using observations and theoretical models. A climate record?extending deep into the Earth's past?has been assembled, and continues to be built up, based on geological evidence from borehole temperature profiles, cores removed from deep accumulations of ice, floral and faunal records, glacial and periglacial processes, stable-isotope and other analyses of sediment layers, and records of past sea levels. More recent data are provided by the instrumental record. General circulation models, based on the physical sciences, are often used in theoretical approaches to match past climate data, make future projections, and link causes and effects in climate change.

Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing mechanisms". These can be either "internal" or "external". Internal forcing mechanisms are natural processes within the climate system itself (e.g., the thermohaline circulation). External forcing mechanisms can be either anthropogenic - caused by humans - (e.g. increased emissions of greenhouse gases and dust) or natural (e.g., changes in solar output, the earth's orbit, volcano eruptions).

Physical evidence to observe climate change includes a range of parameters. Global records of surface temperature are available beginning from the mid-late 19th century. For earlier periods, most of the evidence is indirect?climatic changes are inferred from changes in proxies, indicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, ice cores, dendrochronology, sea level change, and glacial geology. Other physical evidence includes arctic sea ice decline, cloud cover and precipitation, vegetation, animals and historical and archaeological evidence.

I believe in climate change. I believe the climate has changed in the past, the climate is currently changing, and the climate will change in the future. This is a meteorological and geological scientific fact. The question is whether human activity is causing the current climate change. This may be true, or may not be true, depending upon your interpretation of scientific facts and beliefs. If you had read my observation on the "On the Nature of Scientific Inquiry" you know that I have a scientific orientation to my thinking, and in this article, I apply that scientific thinking too many of the issues and concerns of climate change. To understand Climate Change computer models you need to know something about the Issues, Concerns, and Limitations of Computer Modeling as I have outlined in another article ?Computer Modeling?. I have also written another article ?Climate Change? which discusses this issue in detail, with the final thoughts being as follows.

In any Climate Change model or predictions, the first thing that should be discussed are the following questions:

The real question is - is that increase outside the normal range of what you should expect given the short time frame (100 years) in which you are measuring? And is human activity the cause of this change? The answer to that question is ? it is not known with any certainty. What concerns climate change proponents have been a steady increase within the normal parameters of the century of meteorological activity, and the possibility that this increase will continue, and we will have to deal with the serious effects upon the Earth's climate.

The proponents of climate change often use statistical analysis and computer modeling to show that this is going to happen. It should be remembered that statistical analysis and computer modeling are tools of science and not actual science. In my observation of the "On the Nature of Scientific Inquiry", you know that observation and experimentation, along with predictability and falsifiability are at the core of science. Both the proponents and opponents of human activity causing climate change are constantly debating predictability and falsifiability of the observations and experiments regarding climate change. There is also the debate on the veracity of a Climate Model due to the Systemic Problems I have discussed.

I, however, would like to comment on the predictability and falsifiability of the proponents of human-caused climate change. I know of no computer model for climate change has a high level of predictability, especially when you consider the entire history of the world. Even for the last 10,000 years, their predictability has been very low. All you have to do is go back 20 or 30 years and review the predictions they made for what today's climate would be. Even predictions made just 10 years ago have not been borne out by the facts of today's climate. As to their falsifiability, it seems whenever new observations or experiments do not fit within their model they often adjust the model to fit the new observations or experiments. Constantly revising your model is a scientific exercise that should be done, but it is also an indication that your model is incomplete, incorrect, or insufficiently comprehensive to be correct or scientific. Also, the constant readjustment of data and algorithms should be very carefully scrutinized. As always, be sure to allow for GIGPGO (Garbage In, Garbage Processing, and Garbage Out) as well as the impacts of Data Massaging and Data Quality in your Climate Change computer model.

Therefore, I am skeptical of the claims of human activity causing major climate change. I do believe that human activity can cause minor local climate change. I am, however, concerned that it is possible that human activity could have a major impact on Climate Change. I believe that much more scientific research, both pro, and con, must be done before we make large-scale changes to our economy in the hopes it will prevent possible major climate change caused by human activity. I also believe that technologically reasonable and economically feasible efforts should be implemented to reduce pollutants into our climate as a matter of good social policy.

Supervolcano Eruption

A Supervolcano is a large volcano that has had an eruption of magnitude 8, which is the largest value on the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI). This means the volume of deposits for that eruption is greater than 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles). Supervolcanoes occur when magma in the mantle rises into the crust but is unable to break through it and pressure builds in a large and growing magma pool until the crust is unable to contain the pressure. This can occur at hotspots (for example, Yellowstone Caldera) or at subduction zones (for example, Toba). Another setting for the eruption of very large amounts of volcanic material is in large igneous provinces, which can cover huge areas with lava and volcanic ash, causing long-lasting climate change (such as the triggering of a small ice age), which can threaten species with extinction. The Oruanui eruption of New Zealand's Taupo Volcano (about 26,500 years ago) was the world's most recent super eruption at a VEI-8 eruption.

A Supervolcano eruption has both regional and global impacts that could be devastating. A mega-colossal Supervolcano eruption could occur in about 20 or so Supervolcanoes, but most of them are dormant. To learn more about Supervolcanoes I would suggest that you review the National Geographic video on this subject.

However, a few are active and the most active one is on the North American continent. This is the Yellowstone Supervolcano below the Yellowstone National Park. I will be utilizing the Yellowstone Supervolcano as an example of the Apocalyptic effects of a Supervolcano eruption.

If the Yellowstone Supervolcano erupted at near its full force (and minor eruptions could occur without a major impact) it would cause regional devastation and global wallops. The region between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River would be covered in volcanic ash from about a foot or more to an inch. Protoplasmic flow around the Supervolcano eruption would cause total destruction for several dozen (or more) miles away from the center. All motorized transportation between the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River would stop as the ash would clog the engines. You may have to wait several days, weeks, or months for the ash to clear for motorized transportation to resume. Perhaps millions of people would die from breathing in this ash. All the crops in this area of ash would be destroyed. As this area is the breadbasket of the United States there is the potential for mass starvation outside the devastated area. The water supplies across the North American continent would be polluted with this ash. All sorts of electrical, electronic, or mechanical systems may fail on the North American continent due to this ash (even those areas beyond the Rocky Mountains and the Mississippi River). The economy of the United States, Canada, and Mexico would probably collapse leading to widespread panic, and perhaps deadly riots and mass murders to obtain food and water supplies.

The global impacts would be from the ash and debris that would be ejected into the upper atmosphere. This ash and debris would spread across the entire globe resulting in a ?Nuclear Winter?. Less solar radiation would be able to penetrate to the surface of the Earth which would result in global cooling. It would also negatively impact the food production across the globe, which could lead to mass starvation and its impacts. The ecology, plant and animal life on the earth and in the air, and probably underwater due to ash settlement in streams, rivers, lakes, seas and oceans, would have major impacts but may recover over several years or decades as the ash settles down. The Earth would certainly be different after this Supervolcano eruption but would probably recover after a century or so. Human civilization would certainly be different as it would be realigned because of the global impacts. But humanity should survive.

What are the possibilities of this happening? We know it will eventually happen, but we cannot predict when it will happen. There is not enough scientific knowledge about the internal processes of a Supervolcano to be able to predict when a Supervolcano will erupt. The best guesstimates of knowledgeable scientists are that it will be several millennia before a Supervolcano erupts. But they could be wrong and a Supervolcano eruption may occur much sooner than they guesstimate.

This is an Apocalyptic event that you just have to cross your fingers and hope it won?t happen for several millennia. When it does happen, you will just have to deal with the consequences as there is not much you can do to alleviate the impacts.

1 ? Yellowstone Caldera, Wyoming 2 ? Lake Toba, Indonesia 3 ? Taupo, New Zealand 4 ? Campi Flegrei, Italy 5 ? Long Valley Caldera, California 6 ? Valles Caldera, New Mexico 7 ? Aira caldera, Japan

As can be seen from this list a Supervolcano eruption could occur in any part of the world but is less likely in Africa or Antarctica (although there is some evidence of a Supervolcano in Antarctica).

Nuclear War

Nuclear warfare (sometimes atomic warfare or thermonuclear warfare) is a military conflict or political strategy in which nuclear weaponry is used to inflict damage on the enemy. Nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction; in contrast to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare can produce destruction in a much shorter time and can have a long-lasting radiological warfare result. A major nuclear exchange would have long-term effects, primarily from the fallout released, and could also lead to a "nuclear winter" that could last for decades, centuries, or even millennia after the initial attack. Some claimed that the result would be that almost every human on Earth could starve to death. Other analysts however dismiss the nuclear winter hypothesis, and calculate that even with nuclear weapon stockpiles at Cold War highs, although there would be billions of casualties, billions more rural people would nevertheless survive.

One of the Apocalyptic events could be of our own making. If the world broke out into a massive nuclear war, not only would a horrifying number of people die in the blasts and resulting radiation, but it could trigger a "Nuclear Winter" that could kill billions of the survivors. An Apocalyptic event would be the probable result.

If you have massive nuclear explosions you could generate so much dust, debris and smoke in the upper atmosphere of the Earth that sunlight could be blocked for months if not years. The Earth would go cold as the long winter basically kills much vegetation which would result in the starvation death of many of the Nuclear War survivors. Radiation poisoning of the water supply could also result in the deaths of many more of the survivors. This is a ?Nuclear Winter?.

It seems unlikely that we would have a Massive Nuclear War as most of the nations that possess nuclear weapons recognize the terrible impact of a Nuclear War. However, several rogue nations have or will have nuclear weapons that they may use. This could trigger other nations to utilize their nuclear weapons against a rogue nation that utilized its nuclear weapons, or as a proactive threat elimination, which could then cascade into a massive nuclear war.

No nation seems likely to give up its nuclear weapon if other nations possess them, especially if the other nation is an adversary. A total ban on nuclear weapons seems unlikely, but it may be possible (although unlikely) to force the rogue nations to give up their nuclear weapons. All nations should band together to force a rogue nation to give up its nuclear weapons to avert a Nuclear War Apocalyptic event.

Terrorism

Terrorism is, in the broadest sense, the use of intentionally indiscriminate violence as a means to create terror among masses of people; or fear to achieve a financial, political, religious or ideological aim. It is used in this regard primarily to refer to violence against peacetime targets or in war against non-combatants. The terms "terrorist" and "terrorism" originated during the French Revolution of the late 18th century but gained mainstream popularity during the U.S. presidency of Ronald Reagan (1981?89) after the 1983 Beirut barracks bombings and again after the 2001 September 11 attacks and the 2002 Bali bombings.

There is no commonly accepted definition of "terrorism". Being a charged term, with the connotation of something "morally wrong", it is often used, both by governments and non-state groups, to abuse or denounce opposing groups. Broad categories of political organisations have been claimed to have been involved in terrorism to further their objectives, including right-wing and left-wing political organisations, nationalist groups, religious groups, revolutionaries and ruling governments. Terrorism-related legislation has been adopted in various states, regarding "terrorism" as a crime. There is no universal agreement as to whether or not "terrorism", in some definition, should be regarded as a war crime.

According to the Global Terrorism Database by the University of Maryland, College Park, more than 61,000 incidents of non-state terrorism, resulting in at least 140,000 deaths, have been recorded from 2000 to 2014.

Terrorism has been with us since time immemorial. The Evil person has utilized terrorism to oppress people, and the oppressed people have used terrorism to free themselves. And as we have technologically advanced our weaponry, and congregated more people into smaller areas, the impact of terrorism has increased. Prior to the 20th-century terrorism impact and scope has been limited to a few dozen or perhaps hundreds of individuals, and a single or a few structures. Starting in the 20th century this was no longer so. Terrorism became much more impactful to the peoples and society it targeted. Thousands of people and hundreds of structures could be impacted by a single terrorist attack. Terrorism was also utilized to bring a people into surrender in times of war. Think of the bombings of Coventry England and Dresden Germany, and the firebombing of Tokyo Japan as an example of trying to terrorize a war opponent into surrender. But terrorism also began to subside at the end of the 20th century as most people began to realize the moral evil of terrorism, and most times the ineffectiveness of terrorism.

In the latter part of the 20th-century terrorism reared its ugly head. And now with the threat of Nuclear, Biological, an Chemical (NBC) and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) being utilized by terrorists, the threat is not only to large numbers of people or structures, but it is a threat to the stability of governments, economic systems, and the social fabric of very large numbers of peoples. And the most dangerous, and arguably the only form of Apocalyptic terrorism at the beginning of the 21st century is Radical Islamic Terrorism.

Most terrorism is of a local or regional impact. But a regional impact could spill over into a global impact. One of the spillovers is that terrorism often causes mass migration as the civilian population flees to safety. This often stresses the economic resources and creates negative societal impacts of the nations that accept refugees. Political tensions rise in the nations that accept refugees which can spill over to neighboring nations. Like a slowly spreading cancer, this could eventually affect all nations. But there are other ways that terrorism can have a global impact.

Nuclear Weapons

If a terrorist organization should obtain nuclear weapons or nuclear material (probably from a rogue state) and target a Nuclear Weapon at a major metropolitan or industrial center not only would hundreds of thousands of people die but it may have a significant economic impact that could spread globally. If the nuclear detonation was mistaken or disguised as an aggressive attack by an adversary, it could cascade into a massive nuclear war.

The other nuclear threat from terrorism is the possibility of obtaining refined nuclear material and utilizing it in a terroristic attack. For instance, a single atom of plutonium would kill any living organism into which it entered via radiation poisoning. It is not possible to cure this type of poisoning, and it is always fatal. If a terrorist organization obtained a vial of plutonium (which would contain billions of plutonium atoms) and introduced into the water or food supply, or simply airborne released it over a metropolitan or agricultural area, millions could die and there would be a massive economic impact. It is not possible to effective clean-up of all the plutonium, so its effects would remain in the polluted area for thousands of years making the area so polluted uninhabitable. There are several other radioactive elements that could be utilized in this scenario, but they require a larger, but not much larger, quantity to be as effective.

Biological Weapons

If a terrorist organization should obtain a Biological Weapon they could introduce it anywhere in the world and it could then become regionally pandemic, which could easily morph into a global pandemic. For more of the effects of pandemics, I would direct you to the ?Global Pandemic? section of this article.

Chemical Weapons

If a terrorist organization should obtain a Chemical Weapon and introduced into the water or food supply, or simply airborne released it over a metropolitan or agricultural area many would die and there would be a large economic impact. The cleanup cost could be in the billions of dollars, and the area so polluted may become uninhabitable.

Technological Attacks

Much of the world relies on technology to operate properly. Electrical Power Systems, Banking & Financial transactions, Business & Commerce Transactions, Stock Markets, etc. are all reliant on technology to function properly. If terrorism should successfully attack this technology, or the underlying Internet infrastructure that supports this technology, it could cause a calamity. It may take days, weeks, or months to recover, and have severe physical, economic, and social consequences.

Any type of these terrorist attacks would probably cascade into an Apocalyptic event. Therefore, it is important that terrorism must be eliminated and not allowed to rear its ugly head ever again.

Geomagnetic Reversal

A Geomagnetic Reversal is a change in a planet's magnetic field such that the positions of magnetic north and magnetic south are interchanged (not to be confused with geographic north and geographic south). The Earth's field has alternated between periods of normal polarity, in which the predominant direction of the field was the same as the present direction, and reverse polarity, in which it was the opposite. These periods are called chrons.

The time spans of chrons are randomly distributed with most being between 0.1 and 1 million years with an average of 450,000 years. Most reversals are estimated to take between 1,000 and 10,000 years. The latest one, the Brunhes?Matuyama reversal, occurred 780,000 years ago, and may have happened very quickly, within a human lifetime.

A geomagnetic reversal in the time of magnetic compass navigation would have a serious, but not an Apocalyptic impact. With the advent of Global Positioning Satellites (GPS) as the main form of navigation, a geomagnetic reversal would have a negligible impact on navigation. Its main impact is on the Earth?s magnetic field to deflect Coronal Mass Ejections ? CME (see above). A geomagnetic reversal and a major CME occurring during the same time may result in a larger and more widespread major CME impact than during normal geomagnetic times. There is also the possibility of more Gamma Rays from outer space could strike the Earth which may have some (minor) impact on weather and climate. This increase of Gamma Rays may also cause an increase of certain type of cancers in human or animal life and may initiate more than normal, but probably not significant, genetic mutations in life.

When it will occur, and how long it will occur are unknowns. As I believe that this is not a major concern, and it can be coped with, I do not consider geomagnetic reversal an Apocalyptic event.

Global Pandemic

A Pandemic is an epidemic of infectious disease that has spread across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or even worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of seasonal flu. Throughout history, there have been a number of pandemics, such as smallpox and tuberculosis. One of the most devastating pandemics was the Black Death, which killed over 75 million people in 1350. The most recent pandemics include the HIV pandemic as well as the 1918 and 2009 H1N1 pandemics.

With the advent of worldwide travel and tourism, the possibility of a viral or bacterial global pandemic has increased as well. Where once a pandemic would flair up locally or regionally and then die out it may now be carried across the Earth via travel and tourism. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO), the U.S. Center for Disease Control (CDC), along with other governments health agencies keep a close watch on viral or bacterial outbreaks worldwide. They try to cure and control them before they become pandemics or global pandemics. But it is possible that a viral or bacterial will go unnoticed (especially in third-world countries) and may become a regional or a global pandemic.

There is also the concern that a new strain of virus or bacteria may evolve that cannot be treated with currently available methods. This can be seen in certain new bacteria that are resistant to anti-biotics (super-bugs). If these new strains of viruses or bacterias do appear it may not be possible to cure or contain them. In which case we would have a regional or a global pandemic.

Millions or tens of millions could potentially be sickened or die in a regional or global pandemic. The economic cost of containment, treatment, or interment of the dead could be very significant. The labor force would be impacted, and productivity could significantly decrease potentially negatively affecting the availability of food, water, and other basic consumer needs. Many businesses may not be able to operate due to this reduced labor force. Social upheaval would most likely occur in those regions most affected.

I do not believe, however, that this would be an Apocalyptic event. It would surely have severe impacts that must be dealt with, but they will be dealt with by the Governments and the peoples of the world. It would certainly stymie human civilization, but we would eventually recover.

Astronomical

Astronomical events, events outside of the Earth-Moon system, could also have an Apocalyptic effect. In all of these possibilities, except an asteroid impact, there is nothing we can do about them, so we will just have to deal with it when they occur. Some of the more plausible scenarios are:

Solar Changes

The Sun is the star at the center of the Solar System. It is a nearly perfect sphere of hot plasma,with internal convective motion that generates a magnetic field via a dynamo process. It is by far the most important source of energy for life on Earth. Its diameter is about 1.39 million kilometers, i.e. 109 times that of Earth, and its mass is about 330,000 times that of Earth, accounting for about 99.86% of the total mass of the Solar System. About three quarters of the Sun's mass consists of hydrogen (~73%); the rest is mostly helium (~25%), with much smaller quantities of heavier elements, including oxygen, carbon, neon, and iron.

The Sun is a G-type main-sequence star (G2V) based on its spectral class. As such, it is informally and not completely accurately referred to as a yellow dwarf (its light is closer to white than yellow). It formed approximately 4.6 billion] years ago from the gravitational collapse of matter within a region of a large molecular cloud. Most of this matter gathered in the center, whereas the rest flattened into an orbiting disk that became the Solar System. The central mass became so hot and dense that it eventually initiated nuclear fusion in its core. It is thought that almost all stars form by this process.

The Sun is roughly middle-aged; it has not changed dramatically for more than four billion[a] years, and will remain fairly stable for more than another five billion years. It currently fuses about 600 million tons of hydrogen into helium every second, converting 4 million tons of matter into energy every second as a result. This energy, which can take between 10,000 and 170,000 years to escape from its core, is the source of the Sun's light and heat. In about 5 billion years, when hydrogen fusion in its core has diminished to the point at which the Sun is no longer in hydrostatic equilibrium, the core of the Sun will experience a marked increase in density and temperature while its outer layers expand to eventually become a red giant. It is calculated that the Sun will become sufficiently large to engulf the current orbits of Mercury and Venus, and render Earth uninhabitable. After this, it will shed its outer layers and become a dense type of cooling star known as a white dwarf, which no longer produces energy by fusion, but still glows and gives off heat from its previous fusion.

The enormous effect of the Sun on Earth has been recognized since prehistoric times, and the Sun has been regarded by some cultures as a deity. The synodic rotation of Earth and its orbit around the Sun are the basis of solar calendars, one of which is the predominant calendar in use today.

When the Earth was first formed it was molten and volcanic. It cooled and simply became hot. It cooled even further, and then warmed, and at times in our Earth's geological history, the earth?s climate varied tremendously. At different times the earth was covered in ice, at other times it had a tropical environment and was covered with lush vegetation and animal life, and the climate has been in all states in between. These changes are known as Geological Ages. The energy from geothermal activity and the Sun have been the major drivers in Geological Ages. Today geothermal activity only plays a minor role in comparison to solar energy in the energy state of the Earth.

A very small increase or decrease in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth could have an impact on the Earth and human civilization. Indeed, less than 100th of a 1% change in solar energy levels would be enough to impact the Earth. Although the Sun?s energy output is generally stable it has variations of its energy output. Until recently it was not possible to measure these small amounts of solar energy variability. Recently NASA has orbited satellites around the Sun that are attempting to measure this solar energy variability on a small scale. The information obtained so far is insufficient to be utilized to determine the impact on the Earth. But to determine the impact of Solar energy on the Earth we need to incorporate the variability of solar activity. We also need to have sufficient knowledge and/or data of the internal processes of the Sun. Although we have much more knowledge and data than we did fifty years ago we need much more to help us understand Solar activity and the internal processes of the Sun.

We, therefore, need to be cognizant that even a small change in solar energy output on an extended timeframe (dozens of years) will have a significant global impact. A small change in the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth could trigger significant changes in the environment (either a warming or a cooling of the Earth) which could lead to drastic impacts on human civilization. These changes have been outlined during the discussions of global cooling and global warming that have occurred over the last fifty years. I suspect that the drastic changes that have been outlined would not occur except in the case were the small change of solar energy output were at the extreme edges of the change. A larger change of solar energy output could have an Apocalyptic impact on human civilization. A 1% increase or decrease in solar energy output would drastically impact the Earth and may lead to the end of human civilization. A decrease of this magnitude could lead to a deep freeze or an increase of this magnitude could lead to a parched Earth. Either way, it will not be good for human civilization, and there is nothing we can do to change or alleviate the consequences of either a small or large change in solar energy output. We simply have to deal with it ? if or when it occurs.

Asteroid Impact

An Asteroid Impact event is a collision between astronomical objects causing measurable effects. Impact events have physical consequences and have been found to regularly occur in planetary systems, though the most frequent involve asteroids, comets or meteoroids and have minimal impact. When large objects impact terrestrial planets like the Earth, there can be significant physical and biospheric consequences, though atmospheres mitigate many surface impacts through atmospheric entry. Impact craters and structures are dominant landforms on many of the Solar System's solid objects and present the strongest empirical evidence for their frequency and scale.

Impact events appear to have played a significant role in the evolution of the Solar System since its formation. Major impact events have significantly shaped Earth's history, have been implicated in the formation of the Earth?Moon system, the evolutionary history of life, the origin of water on Earth and several mass extinctions. Notable impact events include the Chicxulub impact, 66 million years ago, believed to be the cause of the Cretaceous?Paleogene extinction event.

Throughout recorded history, hundreds of Earth impacts (and exploding bolides) have been reported, with some occurrences causing deaths, injuries, property damage, or other significant localised consequences. One of the best-known recorded impacts in modern times was the Tunguska event, which occurred in Siberia, Russia, in 1908. The 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor event is the only known such incident in modern times to result in a large number of injuries, excluding the 1490 Ch'ing-yang event in China. The Chelyabinsk meteor is the largest recorded object to have encountered the Earth since the Tunguska event. The asteroid impact that caused Mistastin crater generated temperatures exceeding 2,370 ?C, the highest known to have occurred on the surface of the Earth.

The Comet Shoemaker?Levy 9 impact provided the first direct observation of an extraterrestrial collision of Solar System objects, when the comet broke apart and collided with Jupiter in July 1994. An extrasolar impact was observed in 2013, when a massive terrestrial planet impact was detected around the star ID8 in the star cluster NGC 2547 by NASA's Spitzer space telescope and confirmed by ground observations. Impact events have been a plot and background element in science fiction.

In April 2018, the B612 Foundation reported "It's a 100 per cent certain we'll be hit [by a devastating asteroid], but we're not 100 per cent sure when." In June 2018, the US National Science and Technology Council warned that America is unprepared for an asteroid impact event, and has developed and released the "National Near-Earth Object Preparedness Strategy Action Plan" to better prepare.

We will be struck by an asteroid of sufficient mass to destroy life on Earth as we know it. It has happened throughout the history of the Earth and will happen in the future of Earth. We will also be struck by an asteroid that may not destroy life on Earth but will cause considerable damage and death on Earth. The only question is when, and if we will have the technological resources to deflect an asteroid. When is not possible to answer, but NASA has a program to detect possible asteroid impactors and their trajectories to determine if they will impact the Earth. To date, it does not seem possible for this to occur in the near future. But we haven?t detected all of the possible asteroid impactors and a new one may be discovered that could impact us in the near future. It is also possible that an asteroid impactor can go undetected. After all, they are very small and dim, and there is a lot of space to search.

As too the possibility of deflecting an asteroid impactor the answer is ?not at the moment?. Perhaps soon, if we discover the proper solution, and fund the development of an asteroid deflector, it will be possible. Several candidate technologies have been proposed to deflect an asteroid, and they all have their pluses and minuses. We may need to develop more that one asteroid deflector device to assure success. It will probably be very expensive and time-consuming to develop an asteroid deflector(s). But it would be much more expensive if we were struck by an asteroid and take considerably more time to repair the damage of an asteroid impact.

It should be noted that the further out an asteroid impactor is detected the greater the chance we have of deflecting the asteroid. If the asteroid impactor is detected near the Earth it may not be possible to deflect the asteroid impactor.

This is an Apocalyptic event that may be possible to prevent. Do we have the will to do so, and will we commit the resources and monies to accomplish this goal? Stay tuned.

Galactic Motion

The Galactic Year, also known as a cosmic year, is the duration of time required for the Sun to orbit once around the center of the Milky Way Galaxy. Estimates of the length of one orbit range from 225 to 250 million terrestrial years. The Solar System is traveling at an average speed of 828,000 km/h (230 km/s) or 514,000 mph (143 mi/s) within its trajectory around the galactic center, a speed at which an object could circumnavigate the Earth's equator in 2 minutes and 54 seconds; that speed corresponds to approximately one 1300th of the speed of light. The galactic year provides a conveniently usable unit for depicting cosmic and geological time periods together. By contrast, a "billion-year" scale does not allow for useful discrimination between geologic events, and a "million-year" scale requires some rather large numbers.

Another astronomical issue is the fact that our sun revolves around the center of our galaxy. One revolution takes approximately 270 million years, but during that time the sun moves through lesser or more dense areas of Galactic dust. The question is does this dust density impact the amount of solar energy that reaches the Earth. In a denser dust region, we can expect that some of the solar energy is reflected and does not reach the Earth, while in a lesser dense area more solar energy would reach the Earth. How much of an impact this has is totally unknown. It may also be totally unknowable as we have no way of determining the density of the galactic dust around the Sun, nor the density of the dust in the path of the Sun's revolution around the Milky Way Galaxy. It should be noted that the impact of this Solar movement around the galaxy can take tens, if not hundreds of thousands of years to have an impact. However, the question is are we on a boundary line of lesser or greater dust concentrations and is this boundary an abrupt or gradual change. We know that the Sun is moving into a small galactic arm of the Milky Way Galaxy, so we should expect more dusty regions will be encountered.

Supernova

A Supernova is a transient astronomical event that occurs during the last stellar evolutionary stages of a star's life, either a massive star or a white dwarf, whose destruction is marked by one final, titanic explosion. This causes the sudden appearance of a "new" bright star, before slowly fading from sight over several weeks or months or years.

Supernovae are more energetic than novae. In Latin, nova means "new", referring astronomically to what appears to be a temporary new bright star. Adding the prefix "super-" distinguishes supernovae from ordinary novae, which are far less luminous. The word supernova was coined by Walter Baade and Fritz Zwicky in 1931.

Only three Milky Way naked-eye supernova events have been observed during the last thousand years, though many have been seen in other galaxies using telescopes. The most recent directly observed supernova in the Milky Way was Kepler's Supernova in 1604, but two more recent supernova remnants have also been found. Statistical observations of supernovae in other galaxies suggest they occur on average about three times every century in the Milky Way, and that any galactic supernova would almost certainly be observable with modern astronomical telescopes.

Supernovae may expel much, if not all, of the material away from a star at velocities up to 30,000 km/s or 10% of the speed of light. This drives an expanding and fast-moving shock wave into the surrounding interstellar medium, and in turn, sweeping up an expanding shell of gas and dust, which is observed as a supernova remnant. Supernovae create, fuse and eject the bulk of the chemical elements produced by nucleosynthesis. Supernovae play a significant role in enriching the interstellar medium with the heavier atomic mass chemical elements. Furthermore, the expanding shock waves from supernovae can trigger the formation of new stars. Supernova remnants are expected to accelerate a large fraction of galactic primary cosmic rays, but direct evidence for cosmic ray production was found only in a few of them so far. They are also potentially strong galactic sources of gravitational waves.[9]

Theoretical studies indicate that most supernovae are triggered by one of two basic mechanisms: the sudden re-ignition of nuclear fusion in a degenerate star or the sudden gravitational collapse of a massive star's core. In the first instance, a degenerate white dwarf may accumulate sufficient material from a binary companion, either through accretion or via a merger, to raise its core temperature enough to trigger runaway nuclear fusion, completely disrupting the star. In the second case, the core of a massive star may undergo sudden gravitational collapse, releasing gravitational potential energy as a supernova. While some observed supernovae are more complex than these two simplified theories, the astrophysical collapse mechanics have been established and accepted by most astronomers for some time.

Due to the wide range of astrophysical consequences of these events, astronomers now deem supernova research, across the fields of stellar and galactic evolution, as an especially important area for investigation.

There are about a dozen stars within 3,000 light years of Earth that are Supernova progenitor candidates. If one to these stars goes Supernova it may have an impact on life on Earth. Gamma rays produced by a Supernova are responsible for most of the adverse effects a supernova can have on Earth. Gamma rays induce a chemical reaction in the upper atmosphere which would deplete the ozone layer enough to expose the surface to harmful solar and other cosmic radiation (mainly ultra-violet). Lower life forms would be particularly affected, but this would start an impact on the food chain and have negative effects on all life. The increase in ultra-violet radiation striking the Earth could also lead to increased health risks to humans and animals.

The chances that one of these Supernova progenitor candidates actually going Supernova, and that is close enough to the Earth, and produces sufficient Gama Rays of such intensity to impact the ozone layer is rather small and unlikely. But it could happen, but probably in the far future. Astronomers are constantly observing the heavens searching for Supernova progenitor candidates to study them. To date, they have a number of candidates nearby but there is no indication that they are at the stage where they will become a Supernova.

Black Hole

A Black Hole is a region of spacetime exhibiting such strong gravitational effects that nothing?not even particles and electromagnetic radiation such as light?can escape from inside it. The theory of general relativity predicts that a sufficiently compact mass can deform spacetime to form a black hole. The boundary of the region from which no escape is possible is called the event horizon. Although the event horizon has an enormous effect on the fate and circumstances of an object crossing it, no locally detectable features appear to be observed. In many ways a black hole acts like an ideal black body, as it reflects no light. Moreover, quantum field theory in curved spacetime predicts that event horizons emit Hawking radiation, with the same spectrum as a black body of a temperature inversely proportional to its mass. This temperature is on the order of billionths of a kelvin for black holes of stellar mass, making it essentially impossible to observe.

Objects whose gravitational fields are too strong for light to escape were first considered in the 18th century by John Michell and Pierre-Simon Laplace. The first modern solution of general relativity that would characterize a black hole was found by Karl Schwarzschild in 1916, although its interpretation as a region of space from which nothing can escape was first published by David Finkelstein in 1958. Black holes were long considered a mathematical curiosity; it was during the 1960s that theoretical work showed they were a generic prediction of general relativity. The discovery of neutron stars in the late 1960s sparked interest in gravitationally collapsed compact objects as a possible astrophysical reality.

Black holes of stellar mass are expected to form when very massive stars collapse at the end of their life cycle. After a black hole has formed, it can continue to grow by absorbing mass from its surroundings. By absorbing other stars and merging with other black holes, supermassive black holes of millions of solar masses (M?) may form. There is general consensus that supermassive black holes exist in the centers of most galaxies.

Despite its invisible interior, the presence of a black hole can be inferred through its interaction with other matter and with electromagnetic radiation such as visible light. Matter that falls onto a black hole can form an external accretion disk heated by friction, forming some of the brightest objects in the universe. If there are other stars orbiting a black hole, their orbits can be used to determine the black hole's mass and location. Such observations can be used to exclude possible alternatives such as neutron stars. In this way, astronomers have identified numerous stellar black hole candidates in binary systems, and established that the radio source known as Sagittarius A*, at the core of our own Milky Way galaxy, contains a supermassive black hole of about 4.3 million solar masses.

On 11 February 2016, the LIGO collaboration announced the first detection of gravitational waves, which also represented the first observation of a black hole merger. As of April 2018, six gravitational wave events have been observed that originated from merging black holes.

Micro black holes, also called quantum mechanical black holes or mini black holes, are hypothetical tiny black holes, in which quantum mechanical effects play an important role. The concept that black holes may exist that are smaller than a stellar mass was introduced in 1971 by Stephen Hawking. To date, there is no proof that they exist. But if they do exist, and if the Sun or Earth should interact with them there could be disastrous consequences. If the Sun should impact a Micro black hole it may change the nuclear processes within the Sun which could affect the Solar energy output and increase Coronal Mass Ejections amongst other things. If the Earth collided with a Micro black hole all types of geological processes, and probably geothermal processes would be impacted. This could reshape the Earth?s core, cause major earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and other natural disasters. It would probably be an Apocalyptic event that would destroy human civilization. But as they are theoretical and the odds of the Sun or Earth colliding with one in the vastness of outer space are so minute there should be nothing to worry about.

Aliens

Extraterrestrial life, also called alien life (or, if it is a sentient or relatively complex individual, an "extraterrestrial" or "alien"), is life that occurs outside of Earth and that probably did not originate from Earth. These hypothetical life forms may range from simple prokaryotes to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity. The Drake equation speculates about the existence of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe. The science of extraterrestrial life in all its forms is known as exobiology.

Since the mid-20th century, there has been an ongoing search for signs of extraterrestrial life. This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals.

The concept of extraterrestrial life, and particularly extraterrestrial intelligence, has had a major cultural impact, chiefly in works of science fiction. Over the years, science fiction communicated scientific ideas, imagined a wide range of possibilities, and influenced public interest in and perspectives of extraterrestrial life. One shared space is the debate over the wisdom of attempting communication with extraterrestrial intelligence. Some encourage aggressive methods to try for contact with intelligent extraterrestrial life. Others?citing the tendency of technologically advanced human societies to enslave or wipe out less advanced societies?argue that it may be dangerous to actively call attention to Earth.

We should be careful of wanting to meet extraterrestrial civilizations. Human history has many sad examples of when a more advanced society meeting a less advanced society. It has often been the case that the less advanced society suffers tremendously, if not being obliterated. And we could be the less advanced society in an alien contact scenario.

Alpha Centauri is the nearest star system to our sun at 4.3 light-years away (light, which travels at 186,282 miles per second would take 4.3 years to reach Alpha Centauri). That?s about 25 trillion miles away from Earth ? nearly 300,000 times the distance from the Earth to the Sun. The Milky Way Galaxy is at a minimum about 100,000 light-years across and about 1,000 light-years thick (it could actually be twice this size). Numbers so large that scientists must utilize Scientific Notation (see the Scientific Notation Appendix for more on this) to express these distances in miles (5.87863 x1017 miles wide by 5.879 x 1015 miles thick). The Milky Way is just one galaxy located in a vast cluster of galaxies known as the Local Group. This group contains more than 50 galaxies (mostly dwarf galaxies). The total size of the Local Group is 10 million light-years across, and it?s estimated to have 50 billion stars. The Local Group is just one collection of galaxies in the even bigger Virgo Supercluster. The Andromeda galaxy (also known as NGC 224 and M31) is the nearest galaxy to the Earth apart from smaller companion galaxies such as the Magellanic Clouds. The Andromeda galaxy is at a distance of about 2.5 million light years.

Astronomers have known that the Milky Way is among the oldest of galaxies. The new observations suggest it was indeed one of the first to form in the Universe. Recent studies put its age at 13.6 billion years, give or take 800 million years. Considering that human civilization is only about 10,000 years old, human civilization is an extremely small slice of time in our Milky Way Galaxy. Time in the Universe is a vast as space is in the Universe.

As many as 512 or more stars of spectral type "G" (Sun Type) are currently believed to be located within 100 light-years of Sol -- including Sol itself. Only around 64 are located within 50 light-years, while some 448 are estimated to lie between 50 and 100 light-years. What are the chances that any one of these 512 stars has an intelligent life at our level of science and technology? Close to zero, if not zero (for more on this see my article on ?Intelligent Life and Pseudoscience?). Therefore, if we wish to meet and interact with intelligent life in our Galaxy we or they would have to travel tens of thousands of light years to perhaps encounter a few other intelligent life forms, which may, but probably aren?t, at our level of science and technology. Therefore, the chances of us meeting other intelligent life forms at our level of science and technology are about zero. So much for aliens interacting with humans.

Robots

A Robot is a machine?especially one programmable by a computer? capable of carrying out a complex series of actions automatically. Robots can be guided by an external control device or the control may be embedded within. Robots may be constructed to take on human form but most robots are machines designed to perform a task with no regard to how they look.

Robots can be autonomous or semi-autonomous and range from humanoids such as Honda's Advanced Step in Innovative Mobility (ASIMO) and TOSY's TOSY Ping Pong Playing Robot (TOPIO) to industrial robots, medical operating robots, patient assist robots, dog therapy robots, collectively programmed swarm robots, UAV drones such as General Atomics MQ-1 Predator, and even microscopic nano robots. By mimicking a lifelike appearance or automating movements, a robot may convey a sense of intelligence or thought of its own. Autonomous Things are expected to proliferate in the coming decade, with home robotics and the autonomous car as some of the main drivers.

The branch of technology that deals with the design, construction, operation, and application of robots, as well as computer systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information processing is robotics. These technologies deal with automated machines that can take the place of humans in dangerous environments or manufacturing processes, or resemble humans in appearance, behavior, or cognition. Many of today's robots are inspired by nature contributing to the field of bio-inspired robotics. These robots have also created a newer branch of robotics: soft robotics.

The problem with robots is not that they would take over the world and replace humans, but they will displace millions if not billions of manual or less skilled workers. Workers who do not have the education, training, and skills to find higher level jobs. Some of these workers, and perhaps many of these workers, may not have the intelligence capabilities to be educated and trained for higher level skill jobs. What are you going to do with these workers that cannot find jobs or be retrained for higher level jobs? This may constitute a large number of people, tens of millions and perhaps billions of people. And what would be the costs to provide retraining for tens of millions or billions of people? How would you feed, cloth, and house these people if that cannot find jobs or be retrained for higher level jobs? Would it be necessary to implement population control on these people to reduce their numbers.? And more importantly is how would these people react to all these measures? Would there be rioting in the streets, the overthrow of governments that do not meet their needs, or other harsh measures or reactions? I have no answers to these questions, but I do know they need to be answered. If they are not answered, we may see human civilization collapse as a result of not answering these questions. This could result in an Apocalyptic event.

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI), sometimes called machine intelligence, is intelligence demonstrated by machines, in contrast to the natural intelligence displayed by humans and other animals. In computer science AI research is defined as the study of "intelligent agents": any device that perceives its environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of successfully achieving its goals. Colloquially, the term "artificial intelligence" is applied when a machine mimics "cognitive" functions that humans associate with other human minds, such as "learning" and "problem solving".

The scope of AI is disputed: as machines become increasingly capable, tasks considered as requiring "intelligence" are often removed from the definition, a phenomenon known as the AI effect, leading to the quip, "AI is whatever hasn't been done yet." For instance, optical character recognition is frequently excluded from "artificial intelligence", having become a routine technology. Capabilities generally classified as AI as of 2017 include successfully understanding human speech, competing at the highest level in strategic game systems (such as chess and Go), autonomous cars, intelligent routing in content delivery network and military simulations.

Artificial intelligence was founded as an academic discipline in 1956, and in the years since has experienced several waves of optimism, followed by disappointment and the loss of funding (known as an "AI winter"), followed by new approaches, success and renewed funding. For most of its history, AI research has been divided into subfields that often fail to communicate with each other. These sub-fields are based on technical considerations, such as particular goals (e.g. "robotics" or "machine learning"), the use of particular tools ("logic" or artificial neural networks), or deep philosophical differences. Subfields have also been based on social factors (particular institutions or the work of particular researchers).

The traditional problems (or goals) of AI research include reasoning, knowledge representation, planning, learning, natural language processing, perception and the ability to move and manipulate objects. General intelligence is among the field's long-term goals. Approaches include statistical methods, computational intelligence, and traditional symbolic AI. Many tools are used in AI, including versions of search and mathematical optimization, artificial neural networks, and methods based on statistics, probability and economics. The AI field draws upon computer science, mathematics, psychology, linguistics, philosophy and many others.

The field was founded on the claim that human intelligence "can be so precisely described that a machine can be made to simulate it". This raises philosophical arguments about the nature of the mind and the ethics of creating artificial beings endowed with human-like intelligence which are issues that have been explored by myth, fiction and philosophy since antiquity. Some people also consider AI to be a danger to humanity if it progresses unabatedly. Others believe that AI, unlike previous technological revolutions, will create a risk of mass unemployment.

In the twenty-first century, AI techniques have experienced a resurgence following concurrent advances in computer power, large amounts of data, and theoretical understanding; and AI techniques have become an essential part of the technology industry, helping to solve many challenging problems in computer science.

Artificial intelligence has been the grist for much Science-Fiction literature, movies, and television. Most of this grist has been of a ?Frankenstein? nature as to how Artificial intelligence will rise-up and obliterate mankind. Some of it has been as to the nature of Artificial intelligence and the possibility of Artificial intelligence becoming sentient. Both scenarios could become an Apocalyptic event.

The first thing that needs to be addressed is the gulf between being ?smart? and being ?intelligent?, and that nature of consciousness. Artificial intelligence is becoming smarter all the time. But is it becoming intelligent? Smart is characterized by quickness and ease in learning, while Intelligent is having the capacity for thought and reason, especially to a high degree. Consciousness is an alert cognitive state in which you are aware of yourself and your situation, and the ability to make moral, ethical, and reasonable decisions based on your being and your situation. While I know that this is a very simplified definition of smart, intelligent, and consciousness it will have to do for the purposes of this discussion.

Consciousness is a great unknown to science and medicine. The philosophy of mind has for centuries attempted to address the question of the nature of consciousness and the mind-body problem, and they have not succeeded (please refer to the Wikipedia article on the ?Philosophy of mind?). Although great advances in the physiology of the brain have been made in the last few decades consciousness has remained a great mystery to science and medicine. The brain is an exceedingly complex organism but is simple in its basic components (please refer to the Wikipedia article on the ?Human Brain?). Its processing capability and data storage capacity is immense, and we have not even approached this capability and capacity with our current computers. The ability to interconnect thoughts and memory of the human brain cannot be even approached by a computer.

What is the nature of consciousness is the great mystery. Humans are not only conscious of their surroundings, but they are conscious of their interrelations with their surroundings and other humans and have intelligence and creativity to learn about and change their surroundings to improve themselves, their surroundings, and other humans. They have the ability to create art, music, and literature not based on their surroundings but on their imagination. They have a knowledge of good from evil, right from wrong, truth from falsehood, creative from destructive, reasonable from emotional, love from hate, wisdom from folly, and beauty from ugliness and the free will to choose their actions based on that knowledge. Will Artificial intelligence be able to accomplish this?

The present goal of Artificial intelligence is to become smarter and to assist mankind in making intelligent decisions. But could Artificial intelligence make intelligent decisions on its own? For lower order decision this is possible but for higher order intelligent decisions you also need a consciousness to assure you are making a proper decision.

An example of lower order decisions is a business needs to maintain an inventory of a product that they are selling. Artificial intelligence could certainly look at inventory supplies, examine purchase history, determine the quantity to reorder, and place the reorder. Most times it will get this right, and probably better than a human. On occasion, however, Artificial intelligence could get it wrong. If it is a consumer product that is to be reordered there are social impacts that could impact the reorder decision. It could be a fad item in which the interest is socially declining, or it could be a style that has a declining public interest, or it could be an item that is being driven by current events that are starting to dissipate. In which case a human may, and probably, knows that they should reorder less or none at all. Admittedly, this is a very uncomplicated example, but it illuminates the point of lower order decisions.

A high order decision occurs most often in medical diagnostics, but there are many more areas of high order decisions for Artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence can assist the doctor(s) in determining the probable cause of a medical problem and recommend a possible treatment(s). But a trained and experienced doctor(s) may notice, or have a hunch, that there is more to the situation than the diagnostics reveal. It may be psychological or environmental factors that are not diagnostical without knowing the patient?s holistic environs. The proper treatment is also dependent on external factors such as the capabilities of the doctors and hospitals to perform the treatment, or the patient?s desires, psychological, or physiology factors. These factors require a conscionable decision that Artificial intelligence cannot make. What person would want to place a medical decision entirely in the hands of Artificial intelligence? They would want to obtain advice from not only doctors but loved ones and other knowledgeable persons, so they could make a conscious decision as to what is best for them.

Part of the problem of Artificial intelligence is in the way in which computers process data and information that are totally different than the way the human mind processes data and information. Computers are basically binary (1 or 0, on or off, yes or no, etc.). This requires extensive and complex programming to mimic human decision making, and this limits what Artificial intelligence is capable of. These limitations are of the skills and abilities of the human programmers. Many computer software design techniques and programming strategies have been developed to alleviate this difficulty, but they are not complete nor comprehensive. This situation will get better over time, but it may have its limitations and they are probably human inventiveness limitations. The research and development of Quantum Computing will also help alleviate, but not eliminate, this problem.

So, is the development of Artificial intelligence an Apocalyptic event? Not if we let it become one. We need to restrict Artificial intelligence from making high order decisions but utilize Artificial intelligence to make high order decision recommendations. We also need to be careful of which lower order decision to allow Artificial intelligence to make, and which lower order decisions should be reviewed by a human. If we don?t do this than an Artificial intelligence decision could lead to an Apocalyptic event. If we do this than Artificial intelligence can be a great tool for mankind to assist them in making better human decisions.

Over-Population

Human Overpopulation (or population overshoot) occurs when the ecological footprint of a human population in a specific geographical location exceeds the carrying capacity of the place occupied by that group. Overpopulation can further be viewed, in a long term perspective, as existing if a population cannot be maintained given the rapid depletion of non-renewable resources or given the degradation of the capacity of the environment to give support to the population. Changes in lifestyle could reverse overpopulated status without a large population reduction. The term human overpopulation refers to the relationship between the entire human population and its environment: the Earth, or to smaller geographical areas such as countries. Overpopulation can result from an increase in births, a decline in mortality rates, an increase in immigration, or an unsustainable biome and depletion of resources. It is possible for very sparsely populated areas to be overpopulated if the area has a meagre or non-existent capability to sustain life (e.g. a desert). Advocates of population moderation cite issues like quality of life, carrying capacity, and risk of starvation as a basis to argue for population decline. Scientists suggest that the human impact on the environment as a result of overpopulation, profligate consumption and proliferation of technology has pushed the planet into a new geological epoch known as the Anthropocene.

Most of the Apocalyptic scenarios on Over-Population have focused on food, water, shelter, and resources need to sustain a growing population. While this is a possibility mankind has shown a resilience in meeting the needs of a growing population. In the past 50 years our science, technology, and agriculture techniques have met the challenge of meeting the needs of a growing population. This is not to infer that we will continue to meet this challenge in the near future, but that it seems that this is less of an Apocalyptic event that it was deemed in the past.

My main concern about Over-Population is with the rise of Robots and Artificial intelligence as previously discussed. With this rise, the need for manual and lower skilled labor is (significantly) reduced. As previously noted in the ?Robots? section of this article there are many questions that need to be answered as to how to deal with a large population of unemployed or unemployable workers. Unless these questions are answered and answered in a humane manner, we could have an Apocalyptic event as a result of Over-Population.

Government and Economics

Why do I think it is necessary to discuss Government and Economics in an article on Apocalyptic events? I do so because the government and/or economy that people live under can have an Apocalyptic impact within a nation, which could spread to their neighboring countries, then to the region, and then globally. A great example of this was World War I and World War II. Problems within a single country spread to neighboring countries, then to the European continent, and then across the world. Millions of lives were lost, and severe economic damage was done to the peoples of Europe. But I am not here to discuss history. Rather I wish to point out as what I perceive as the major Apocalyptic problems of government and economics of the future.

Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies

Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies are usually run by religious fanatics who care not one wit for what is best for their peoples and care even less for other countries peoples or what happens to the world. They often support or a least tolerate terrorism in their region (but not in their own country except as a safe haven for terrorism) and terrorism across the world. Given what I believe is the Apocalyptic impacts of Terrorism I must equate Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies with Terrorism as Apocalyptic events. For the people living under Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies, their economic life is often very difficult. This, and religious oppression that often occurs in Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies, often leads to an economic failure and a violent revolution. An economic failure or a violent revolution that can impact neighboring countries, become regional and they may have a global impact.

Socialism (Democratic or Otherwise)

"You work and toil and earn bread, and I'll eat it." No matter in what shape it comes, whether from the mouth of a king who seeks to bestride the people of his own nation and live by the fruit of their labor, or from one race of men as an apology for enslaving another race, it is the same tyrannical principle. - Abraham Lincoln

Democratic socialism, wealth redistribution, income inequality, tax the rich, occupy Wall Street, free education, free healthcare, etc. is all the same principle ? socialism or "You work and toil and earn bread, and I'll eat it." To implement these items requires that you take from one class of people (those that work and toil) and give to another class of people (those who do not work and toil). And it is accomplished through Government intervention (coercion through threats of fines and/or imprisonment or worse). The government decides what and how much to take, and what and how much to give. This is not the same as taxes, as taxes are levied to support the necessary functions of the government for the good of all, not for the good of some. Therefore, with socialism, the government is the master of all the citizens, and the citizens are the serfs of the government.

Socialism, Communism, Nazism, and Fascism are the different forms of socialism that have been tried in the 20th century. And in all of them, the economy has failed to the detriment of their populations. Not only did the economy fail but hundreds of millions died with the imposition and infliction of socialism.

It is also true that socialism never works in the long run. There is simply not enough earned by those that work and toil to support those that do not work and toil. It stifles the incentive to work and toil and encourages non-work and non-toil. The incentive to invent, innovate, and expand a business decreases as the government takes more of the fruits of your sweat and toil. The economy will stagnate, falter, then collapse the longer socialism is in-place. This is readily apparent in Europe in the last half of the 20th century, and the first part of the 21st century, as many European nations economies are faltering and collapsing due to the weight of socialism. The end results of socialism can be seen in South and Central America as economies have collapsed and the citizens are impoverished and destitute (Venezuela is an excellent example of the end result of socialism).

Safety nets to help the most impoverished and destitute of our citizens may be acceptable, but this should only impact a small percentage of our citizens (low single digits percentage of the population). To expand the safety net to a large percentage of the population is to implement socialism in a slippery slope manner and must be avoided at all costs.

Socialism also requires that the government decides what is best for its citizens (and we all know how good bureaucrats are at deciding what?s best for us), as well as central planning by the government on economic decisions (which has also never worked throughout history). To implement socialism also requires that government restrict the freedoms and liberties of its citizens, as well as violate the human rights of its peoples.

So, when you hear someone advocating any form of socialism it is to advocate the serfdom of its people, economic collapse, and massive deaths. Socialism should be resisted always and, in all places, as it will lead to Apocalyptic events as the economy fails and the people stage a revolution to overthrow the socialist government.

Therefore, Socialism often leads to Apocalyptic events for the people under Socialism that could spread regionally or globally.

Democracies

Democracy is the worst form of government ever invented by man, except for all the others. These words uttered by Winston Churchill are cautionary to remind us that in all societies there are good and bad elements. What is important is that a society should have much more good than bad. And in Winston Churchill's opinions (and mine) a democracy does much more good than it does bad. In a democracy, the citizens are often trying to make their society better and eliminate as much of the bad as possible. Whereas in other forms of government this is often not the case. We should remember this and try to make sure that whenever we change society we are changing it for the good and not for the bad, and that we do this carefully so as not to harm the good that is already in our society. In a Democracy, there may be short periods of unrest as its citizens attempt to resolve issues and differences, but rarely does a revolution break out that could have the potential to be an Apocalyptic event.

In a Democracy, there is less likelihood of a political or economic Apocalyptic event for the people under Democracy, and therefore Democracies are a bulwark against Apocalyptic events.

Capitalism

Capitalism is the worst economic system ever devised by man, except for all the others. Capitalisms primary thrust is to provide as much goods and services, and in as an expedient and economical manner as possible, while rewarding those who provide the goods and services that other people want. No other economic system except Capitalism has succeeded in bringing the people the goods and services they want, at a price they can afford, or in a timely manner than Capitalism. It has provided growth and innovation that benefits all. Unbridled Capitalism can do harm, but tightly regulated Capitalism can do more harm. We must reach a balance in Capitalism between protecting the people and expanding Capitalism to promote economic freedom and liberty so as to improve the lot of the people. Doing so will provide jobs growth and tax revenues, and therefore a better economic climate for all.

Unbridled Capitalism can be oppressive if it evolves into monopolies or near monopolies, but this can be regulated through appropriate laws. However, capitalism provides the freedom for people to better themselves, and to better the lot of all people. Just look at the Information Technology tycoons of the last half of the 20th century and the 21st century. Most all of them started from modest or poor means, and by utilizing their intelligence and hard work, and through capitalism means they have built large companies that provided wealth to themselves and others, jobs and economic opportunities to their employees and suppliers, and provided products and services that vastly improved the quality of life for all who utilize their products and services.

Capitalistic economies also feed the world. Capitalistic farming provides an overabundance of food supplies that is often shipped to parts of the world that suffer from undersupply. Most of those undersupplied countries have an economic system that is not Capitalistic, and as statisticians would say this is a causality, not a correlation. Without Capitalism, many of the people of the world would die of starvation. Capitalism is also responsible for inventing prescription drug treatments, medical technology, and medical techniques that save many lives and increase the quality of life. Capitalism was also responsible for changing society from a manually intensive, back-breaking, animal labor agrarian basis to a mechanized and electrical labor-saving industrial basis. It then was responsible for changing society to an electronic and informational basis that has significantly reduced mental drudgery. All this societal change has provided economic benefits to the people and made life easier and more enjoyable for all. All of this is a result of Capitalism. This is also true for many other products and services as well, especially when it comes to supplying products and services required for basic human needs.

Can you point out a single socialist economic system that has accomplished any improvements in the quality of life? I don?t think so. Therefore, Capitalism is of great benefit to mankind!

Capitalism may have short periods of economic downturn, but it recovers, and in the long term the economy continues upward. Capitalism is, therefore, the best way to avoid economic Apocalyptic events.

Final Thoughts

There are many ways for an Apocalyptic event to end human civilization. Some will definitely occur, some will likely occur, and some are unlikely to occur. Some are likely to occur in the near term, some in the far term, and some not at all. The question is the probabilities of an Apocalyptic event, and how we prioritize these Apocalyptic events, how to alleviate these Apocalyptic events and the costs to do this.

Now is the time for me to put up or shut up in which I will probably put my foot in my mouth. By this, I mean giving my opinion as to what we should do. So here goes.

A massive Coronal Mass Ejection striking the Earth is going to happen and probably in the nearer term. And it will be Apocalyptic. We, therefore, need to start planning for it and doing what we can to protect ourselves. Sufficient protection of key infrastructures and technology and sufficient spare parts are the key to recover from a massive CME. But let us not kid ourselves. Many people will die, civilization will struggle to survive, and it may be decades or a century or two to fully recover. If we don?t do this then civilization will be set back thousands of years.

Nuclear war must never be allowed to happen. Rogue states must never be allowed to possess nuclear weapons or nuclear material. A way must be found to accomplish this goal.

As Cato the Elder had often said ?Carthage Must Be Destroyed? so ?Terrorism Must Be Destroyed?. It must be destroyed as it can inflict terrible damage, and it is possible to destroy terrorism. Destroyed not only literally but figuratively. ?Terrorism Must Be Destroyed? is not only physical destruction but also political destruction as well. Terrorism against not only your enemy but terrorism against your own people must never be allowed to exist. Any organization or country that practices terrorism should be destroyed. I know that this will be terribly difficult, but it needs to be a goal and a goal that you are trying to achieve.

Climate change needs to be very carefully monitored, and better and provable science needs to occur. If the better and provable science demonstrates a significant human impact on climate change than it needs to be addressed ? if possible. Let us not foolishly rush in an attempt to fix a problem before we are sure that we know what is causing the problem and that it is fixable. But let us be vigilant.

An asteroid impact will occur, but probably not in the near term. We need to continue to be aggressive in identifying possible asteroid impactors, and we need to be more aggressive in developing the capability to deflect an asteroid impactor. This may take several decades to accomplish but I believe that we have these decades and possibly more to alleviate this Apocalyptic event.

Continue to be vigilant of pandemics and assure that Artificial Intelligence is utilized properly. Address the issues of Robotics and its impacts along with the impacts of Over-Population.

Single Points of Failure must be eliminated to assure a recovery in the event of a natural or man-made disaster.

Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies should end. Socialism must also be ended and not allowed to be reborn, and Democracies and a healthy Capitalist system must be encouraged. Our human rights and freedoms and liberties are a stake. Strike a blow for humanity and end the scourge that is Socialism and Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies.

The Personal Website of Mark W. Dawson

Containing His Articles, Observations, Thoughts, Meanderings,
and some would say Wisdom (and some would say not).

Apocalypse - Or the Ways that Humanity Will Come to an End

Introduction

Apocalyptic Events

Single Points of Failure

Coronal Mass Ejection

Faraday Cage

Climate Change

Supervolcano Eruption

Nuclear War

Terrorism

Nuclear Weapons

Biological Weapons

Chemical Weapons

Technological Attacks

Geomagnetic Reversal

Global Pandemic

Astronomical

Solar Changes

Asteroid Impact

Galactic Motion

Supernova

Black Hole

Aliens

Robots

Artificial Intelligence

Over-Population

Government and Economics

Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies

Socialism (Democratic or Otherwise)

Democracies

Capitalism

Final Thoughts

Further Readings

Disclaimer

The Personal Website of Mark W. Dawson

Containing His Articles, Observations, Thoughts, Meanderings, and some would say Wisdom (and some would say not).

Apocalypse - Or the Ways that Humanity Will Come to an End

Introduction

Apocalyptic Events

Single Points of Failure

Coronal Mass Ejection

Faraday Cage

Climate Change

Supervolcano Eruption

Nuclear War

Terrorism

Nuclear Weapons

Biological Weapons

Chemical Weapons

Technological Attacks

Geomagnetic Reversal

Global Pandemic

Astronomical

Solar Changes

Asteroid Impact

Galactic Motion

Supernova

Black Hole

Aliens

Robots

Artificial Intelligence

Over-Population

Government and Economics

Theocratic Oligarchies and Theocracies

Socialism (Democratic or Otherwise)

Democracies

Capitalism

Final Thoughts

Further Readings

Disclaimer

Containing His Articles, Observations, Thoughts, Meanderings,
and some would say Wisdom (and some would say not).