The Personal Website of Mark W. Dawson

Containing His Articles, Observations, Thoughts, Meanderings,
and some would say Wisdom (and some would say not).

The Rise of Intelligent Life

In my Science Articles, “Intelligent Life in the Universe” and “The Fire of Mankind”, I examine the possibilities and probabilities of intelligent life in our universe. This article examines the steps required to produce intelligent life on a planet orbiting a star.

Steps for the Rise of Intelligent Life

1. The first step is the creation of a Planetary System around a star which originates in the right type of Galaxy (most likely a spiral galaxy), the right galactic location (not too close to or too far from the galactic nucleus which determine Cosmic ray and Cosmic dust impacts on life), and with the proper stellar classification that would allow life to form (basically, a not too hot or not too cold Main Sequence star).
2. Then, a Gaseous Nebula in this proper galactic location with sufficient mass to collapse into a star with sufficient heavy elements requisite for terrestrial planetary formation. In addition, this collapse should result in a single star creation, as there is some doubt that life could form and evolve in a binary or multiple-star
3. A star created from a gaseous nebula cloud, which contains molecular chains that are needed to seed the terrestrial planet with proto-life by means of meteoric or cometary impacts.
4. A Planetary System with the right arrangement of planets in the planetary system (i.e., the terrestrial planets close in and gas giants further out from the star). Any other arrangement would destabilize the orbit of a terrestrial planet and negatively impact life creation and evolution.
5. A terrestrial planet of the right size, mass, and gravity in a Habitable (Goldilocks) Zone, in a stable orbit around the star. This habitable zone is neither too hot nor too cold, allows for liquid water, and for the possibility of life as we know it.
6. A proper planetary orbit around the Star and the proper rotation of the Planet, which controls the temperature and the seasons of a planet, which are essential to the creation and evolution of life.
   • A terrestrial planet with an elliptical eccentricity that does not bring it too close (Perihelion) nor too far (Aphelion) within the Goldilocks Zone from its star.
   • A terrestrial planet with the proper rotational axis and diurnal period.
7. A terrestrial planet with a magnetosphere to deflect extraterrestrial radiation.
8. A terrestrial planet with the proper atmosphere conducive to life, i.e., sufficient nitrogen and not too much or too little oxygen or carbon dioxide, and only trace amounts of other gases.
9. A terrestrial planet where the asteroid and meteor bombardment does not massively evaporate surface water or destroy the life that was created on the planet.
10. A terrestrial planet with large quantities of surface water to expedite life creation and evolution.
11. A terrestrial planet with insufficient geological or meteorological forces that would result in the evaporation of surface water or pollution of the atmosphere, which would be destructive to life.
12. A terrestrial planet with a large moon that exerts tidal forces on the water and mantle of the planet, which allows for the molecular chains to slosh around and contact, then combine with each other.
13. A terrestrial planet with Continents and Plate tectonics for geothermal energy and heavy elements to be released from the core of the planet.
14. One or more (unknown) evolutionary triggers for microbial and complex life to form in water.
15. A complex life form that migrates from water to land masses to evolve into multiple plant and animal life forms.
16. A complex animal life that evolves with dexterous fingers and opposing thumbs to manipulate objects.
17. The further evolution of this dexterous-fingered and opposable thumbs species to a bipedal species with dexterous toes for bipedal balance control.
18. The further evolution of this bipedal species with enhanced multiple sensory systems that are not predominated by one sensory system, and whose field of senses is not constrained to their immediate vicinity.
19. The loss of fear of fire and the gaining of control over fire.
20. The rise of food cooking.

When all these criteria are met, then intelligent life is possible and indeed probable. However, if any one of these criteria is not met, then intelligent life is less possible and more improbable. If multiple criteria are not met, then the possibility and probability of intelligent life are almost zero.

Steps 1 and 2 probably eliminate over half the stars in a galaxy. Consequently, although there are a vast number of stars with planetary systems in our Milky Way galaxy, the number of stars that meet this criterion is considerably less but still very large. Steps 3 through 11 eliminate many other planetary systems that have formed, as these planets would be unsuitable for the creation and evolution of life, although simple life may be possible on some of these planets.

In my opinion, it is step 12 (a large moon that exerts a tidal force) that has a very low probability of occurring. Our Moon is unique in the Solar System for its size/mass ratio to its planet. All the other moons in the Solar System have a low size/mass compared to their planet. Therefore, their moons have little tidal force on their planet, and with little tidal forces, the plate tectonics of step 13 are unlikely to occur.

The Origin of the Moon is usually explained by a Mars-sized body striking the Earth, making a debris ring that eventually collected into a single natural satellite, the Moon, but there are a number of variations on this giant-impact hypothesis, as well as alternative explanations, and research continues into how the Moon came to be. The standard giant-impact hypothesis suggests that a smaller proto-terrestrial body impacted on a larger proto-terrestrial body, creating a large debris ring around Earth, which then accreted to form a large moon. This collision also resulted in an Axial tilt of approximately 23.44 degrees between its rotational axis and its orbital axis, which is responsible for the seasons and variations of temperatures across the globe.

Outer space is vast, even on the scale of the Solar System. Having two such massive bodies collide has a low probability, especially if their orbital inclinations around the star are different. In addition, if the colliding body had insufficient mass or too large a mass, this collision would not have occurred in a manner that produces a large moon. Also, the angle of the collision could not be too large or too small; otherwise, the creation of an Earth-Moon system with a large moon would not occur. This is because a head-on collision would result in a large terrestrial planet as both bodies collapsed into one body, or a small moon in a glancing collision, as the smaller body would ricochet away from the larger body and not become part of the moon. The result of such a collision would also have to create the proper rotational axis and diurnal period of the terrestrial planet for life to form and evolve, which also has a low probability. Therefore, the creation of an Earth-Moon system with a large moon seems unlikely to occur in our galaxy, except in rare cases. Consequently, without a large moon that exerts tidal forces, it is quite improbable that steps thirteen through twenty occur. We can therefore conclude that the rise of intelligent life in our galaxy occurs infrequently because of steps 1 through 6.

The evolutionary triggers of Step 14 are difficult to ascertain, as all the evidence has been destroyed through the geological ages. Thus, science is unable to determine the early stages of the creation of microbial life, or the factors that allowed microbial life to evolve into complex life forms. The central question of this evolution is how complex life forms can arise from simplistic life forms, and how the structural, functional, and genomic complexity of life occurred. This is especially true of the Cambrian explosion, which occurred approximately 538.8 million years ago and lasted for about 13 to 25 million years, when a sudden radiation of complex life occurred and practically all major animal phyla started appearing in the fossil record.

Steps 15 through 18 are more understandable and explained by the science of Anthropology, as science has evidence as to how this occurred. Step 17, the rise of a bipedal species, is indirectly related to the formation of a moon with a large size/mass ratio compared to its planet. This large size/mass ratio is responsible for the tidal force on Earth, which contributes to Plate Tectonics. Plate tectonics is the scientific theory that explains how the Earth's outer layer, called the lithosphere, is divided into large, rigid plates that move over the semi-fluid asthenosphere beneath. This movement causes geological phenomena such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and the formation of mountains.

There are over one hundred species of primates inhabiting the world, but only one of these species has developed intelligence. The question is why only one species of primate developed intelligence. The answer to this question is a byproduct of Plate tectonics. A primate species evolved over the East African Rift fault line, which was separating. At the beginning of this separation, the landscape above the fault line was dense forest. As this rift separated, the forest became less dense, with patches of unforested land between the trees. The primates who lived above this rift foraged for food in the trees by jumping or swinging between the dense trees. They, therefore, had to climb down the trees and scamper on four limbs on the unforested land to another group of trees to continue their foraging. As scampering on four limbs is not efficient and somewhat slow for a tree dweller, they became easier prey for the carnivores on the ground.

This primate species above the rift evolved so that they stood up on their hind legs and ran upright between the trees, a more efficient and faster means of locomotion, with less likelihood of being captured and devoured by a predator. In their becoming erect, there were other physiological changes that occurred, particularly with their senses. In becoming erect, their vision was higher, and their field of view became further afield. This also allowed them to better spot the predators from farther away. Their senses of sound and smell also increased in range, which also allowed them to better spot the predators from farther away. In addition, it was easier to twist and turn their bodies to direct their senses in all directions to spot predators and to better spot food sources.

Thus, Steps 19 and 20 are essential for the development of intelligent life. Fire – unexpected and uncontrollable by all species of animal life is a primal fear of all animals. No species knew when or where a fire would occur, and when it occurred, it was uncontrollable. To be afraid of fire and to flee from fire was necessary for survival. The erect stance of these evolved primates allowed them to spot the direction and speed of the forest fires before the fire was upon them. By spotting the forest fire earlier and determining the speed and direction of the forest fire, the primates were able to avoid much of the destructiveness of the fire, which lessened their fear of fire. With their sensory improvements, the primates were also able to approach the remnants of the fire with little fear, which led them to consume the animal flesh that died in the fire. They also learned to handle the fire embers for warmth purposes and to defend against predators, which allowed them to live on land rather than in the trees.

Eventually, they learned how to utilize fire for cooking purposes, and they became hunters as well as gatherers of food. As I have written in my article on “The Fire of Mankind”, consuming cooked flesh was a huge advancement in intelligence. All animals consumed uncooked food. Herbivores feed chiefly on grasses and other plants, while Carnivores feed on flesh, and Omnivores, which these primates were, fed on both animal and vegetable substances. All animals spend a significant amount of their daily activities on food gathering, eating, and digesting food. Some estimates put this time up to 80% of the waking hours animals spend on food foraging, eating, and digesting. Cooking is a form of pre-digesting food outside of your body, which significantly reduces the amount of time for eating and digestive activities. Also, digesting food takes a considerable amount of metabolic energy, energy that was saved with cooking, and energy that could be utilized for other purposes. Therefore, these primates had more time and energy for activities outside of digestion, which led to a developing, intelligent, and energy-consuming brain. This intelligent brain also allowed them to become more efficient in scavenging and hunting for food, and they also developed increased social skills, which increased their intellectual abilities.

Consequently, while many of these steps are low-probability events, all of these steps are necessary for intelligent life to arise on a terrestrial planet. At the same time you need to consider that an Apocalyptic Event could wipe out life, as I have written in my science article on “Apocalyptic Events”.

The Timeline of Intelligent Life

As shown in the following diagram, the Earth is about 4.5 billion years old, and the evolution of microbial life on Earth started about 3.7 billion years ago. The earliest evidence of complex cells with tiny cellular structures that perform specific functions within a cell dates back to 1.85 billion years, while more complex life forms began about 850 million years ago. The Cambrian Explosion event occurred approximately 541 million years ago when most major animal phyla appeared in the fossil record. It lasted for about 13 – 25 million years and resulted in the divergence of most modern life forms. Primate evolution is the evolutionary process that led to the emergence of modern humans, beginning with the evolutionary history of primates—in particular, genus Homo—and leading to the emergence of Homo Sapiens as a distinct species of the hominid family of the great apes. Within the apes' superfamily, the Hominidae family diverged from the Gibbon family some 15–20 million years ago; African great apes diverged from Orangutans about 14 million years ago; and humanlike bipedal primates, other extinct biped genera, and the chimpanzees parted from the gorilla tribe between 8–9 million years ago. The humans and their biped ancestors and chimpanzees separated from the others about 6 to 7 million years ago.

As this diagram illustrates, the evolution of life on Earth took an enormous amount of time, and even the 6 to 7 million years it took for humans to evolve is an extremely large amount of time. Always keep in mind the enormity of time whenever you think about evolution. This enormity of time increases the likelihood of life evolving on a terrestrial planet.

Given the enormous time scale for the creation of a terrestrial planet capable of supporting life (approximately a billion years), where microbial life arose (billions of years), and then complex life arose (hundreds of millions of years), it seems highly unlikely that an extraterrestrial intelligence in our galaxy occurred in the same time frame as ourselves. Therefore, the real question is not the number of extraterrestrial planets with intelligent beings, but the number of extraterrestrial planets with intelligent beings in their current state of evolutionary, scientific, and technological development that could communicate or visit each other.

Given that the evolution of terrestrial planets occurred in fits and starts, and the progress of the evolution of humans was uneven, it seems unlikely that extraterrestrial intelligence proceeded in the same timeline and pace as humans. If extraterrestrial planets with intelligent beings evolved, they are more likely to be ahead or behind the evolutionary, scientific, and technological development of human intelligence. Therefore, to have two or more extraterrestrial civilizations at the same stage of development at the same time is highly unlikely.

In addition. If you think about where human civilization was at the beginning of the 20th century versus where we are at the beginning of the 21st century, we probably will have little interest in communicating with an earlier 20th-century civilization, and probably no interest in communicating with a pre-20th-century civilization. After all, they had no radio or television, no air or space flight, automobiles were newfangled and scarce, electrification and the utilization of fossil fuels were just beginning, industrialization was just starting, and labor was a crude and brute force process. And where will we be at the end of the 21st century? Anyone living today would probably not recognize our civilization at the end of the 21st century due to our rapid advancement of science and technology. And other advanced extraterrestrial intelligent life would probably have the same attitude about communicating or visiting civilizations that are well behind their current state of evolutionary, scientific, and technological development.

The Fermi Paradox refers to the contradiction between the high probability of extraterrestrial intelligence life in the universe and the lack of evidence or contact with such civilizations, as I have written in my science article on “Intelligent Life in the Universe”. Despite the vast number of stars and potentially habitable planets, we have not observed any signs of intelligent life, leading to various theories about why this silence exists. The most likely explanation is that extraterrestrial intelligence that coexists in the same timeframe as us is not very probable. If there were extraterrestrial intelligence that coexists in the same 100-year time frame, it may not be impossible for us to ever communicate with them, let alone visit them, as I examine later in this article.

The Probability of the Evolution of Life to Intelligent Life

Consequently, given these twenty steps for the rise of intelligent life, the question is of the probability of intelligent life arising on an extraterrestrial planet. Probability is a branch of Mathematics, which is the pursuit of knowledge unconstrained by the physical properties of the universe. Much of mathematics has no foundation in reality, but much mathematics is needed to explain reality. Mathematical Theorems are a rigorous pursuit of mathematical truths that require strict standards for the proofs. Less strict standards for Mathematical Conjectures are allowed, but such conjectures are not a proof, but speculations that require a proof to be developed to be accepted as a Mathematical Theorem. Mathematics, therefore, cannot be utilized to prove anything except that the mathematics is correct. Scientific Theories are the best explanation of physical phenomena that fit all the known facts, and much science requires a mathematical foundation to be proven correct. Also, scientific theories cannot be “proven”, as new facts are often discovered, which requires that the Scientific Theory be modified or replaced, as outlined in my Science Article “On the Nature of Scientific Inquiry“.

As for mathematical probabilities, one of the common mistakes that many people make is that they only examine the beginning and end states to determine the probability of an event occurring. To determine the probability of reaching an end state requires that you not just consider the start and endpoints; you must examine the probability of each intermediate state, which often has a much higher or lower probability than a simple start-end state probability. Therefore, you must examine all the numerous intermediate state probabilities and their interrelationships to determine the end state probability. When you aggregate the probabilities of the intermediate states, this aggregation makes for a more acceptable probability of the end state.

While the probabilities in steps 1 through 6 can be roughly estimated, steps 7 through 11 are harder to estimate. The probability of steps 12 and 13 can be estimated, but only with many assumptions that can be difficult to vindicate. The biggest unknowns are in step 14, the evolutionary triggers for life to arise and evolve into intelligent life, as the evidence and knowledge of what these triggers were have been destroyed through the geological ages. Given that the evolutionary triggers for life to arise and evolve into intelligent life are unknown, any probability calculation for the evolution of life into intelligent life is highly suspect. A Dendrogram for the process of the evolution of life makes this visually apparent. This Dendrogram is very basic, as it only shows a few levels of branch points, but the branch points in the evolution of life are of many levels. It also only shows two-prong branch points, while these branch points often have multiple branches. It also does not show that some branches end because of extinction events.

Step 15 is more probable once complex life forms migrate from water to land. We also have more knowledge of what occurred after the land migration started, as some of this evidence has been preserved in fossils. The science of Paleontology is the scientific study of the life of the past, mainly but not exclusively through the study of fossils. Paleontologists use fossils as a means to classify organisms, measure geologic time, and assess the interactions between prehistoric organisms and their natural environment. Paleontology is a mature science, but it has many unknowns, as much fossil evidence has been destroyed through geological processes. As such, probabilities can be difficult to determine, but the History of life can be ascertained.

Steps 16 through 20 are determined by the science of Anthropology, which studies Human evolution. Anthropology is the scientific study of humanity that crosses biology and sociology, concerned with human behavior, human biology, cultures, societies, and linguistics, in both the present and past, including archaic humans. The factors for the probabilities of Paleontology are also true for the factors for the probabilities of Anthropology.

If you calculate the probability of life by the probabilities of the intermediate states, life is more probable than the probability of a start and endpoint probability calculation. And since life did happen on Earth, we can conclude that life was probable on Earth. As to the probability of intelligent life evolving on another planet, this is examined in my Science Article on “Intelligent Life in the Universe“.

Communicating or Visiting with Extraterrestrial Intelligent Life

One of the peculiarities of the human mind is its inability to grasp the very small and the very large. We place numbers on the very small and very large to assist us in comprehending them. However, we can never fully grasp them in their entirety. The Enormousness of Time and the Vastness of Space in the Universe is something that the human mind is incapable of grasping. A universe that is 13.8 billion years old, and perhaps almost a hundred billion light-years in size, is not something a human being can fully grasp. The vastness of space is germane to step 12 of this article, but the enormousness of time is germane to all the steps necessary for the rise of intelligent life. Thus, we must keep in mind the enormity of time whenever we discuss evolution.

In the previous three sections of this article, I examined the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligent life and whether extraterrestrial intelligent life arose in our galaxy in the same timeframe as our own intelligent life. If such a possibility occurred, would it be possible for them or us to communicate or visit each other? 

Given the immense distances between stars and the limitations of the speed of light, such communications may take several decades or more to travel between the two stars. A two-way conversation between extraterrestrial intelligent life would therefore be almost impossible to maintain and may even be impossible to understand. Translating from one human language to another is fraught with problems, as anyone who has learned to read, write, and speak a second language is aware. Even when the languages are similar, there are a multitude of problems. When learning dissimilar languages, i.e., English and Mandarin, the problems are of a greater magnitude. It is possible for humans to do this, as we are all human and have many commonalities that assist us in this translation. Now imagine trying to learn an alien language in which there are few commonalities.

As to travel between these extraterrestrial civilizations, the immense distances between them are also prohibitive. Given the energy required, as well as the scientific, technological, engineering, and ecological factors to sustain life for the duration of the trip, it would be extremely difficult, if not impossible, to achieve. Even the sci-fi speculation of such things as warp drive, wormholes, subspace, and other exotic means of transportation would be an immense scientific, technological, and engineering feat and could make the trip impossible. And we must also keep in mind that it is not possible to violate the Fundamental Properties of the Universe and account for the The Four Forces of Nature in doing so. In my Science Article, “Science vs. Science Fiction”, I examine the issues of the Fundamental Properties of the Universe, Energy Requirements, The Immensity of Space and Time, That Which is Seen and That Which is Unseen, and the Miscellaneous Science-Fiction Issues as they pertain to interstellar space travel.

You should also be careful about wanting to communicate or meet extraterrestrial civilizations. Human history has many sad examples of when a more advanced society meets a less advanced society. It has often been the case that the less advanced society suffers tremendously, if not being obliterated. 

With the recent release of the government's knowledge of ‘Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs)’, or  ‘Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs)’, much speculation has arisen that these objects are visitations from extraterrestrial intelligent life. There is no doubt that these sightings are unidentified, that they are aerial (as opposed to land or sea), and that they are a phenomenon, but are they visitations from extraterrestrial intelligent life? When analyzing UAPs, you must keep in mind the Philosophical Occam's razor:

"Simpler explanations are more likely to be correct; avoid unnecessary or improbable assumptions."

Or:

"The simplest explanation, that fits all the known facts, is most often the correct explanation."

To presume that these UAPs are visitations from extraterrestrial intelligent life is to violate this razor. There is no question that we should investigate these sightings to determine their true nature. But these UAPs are more likely to be natural and of a nature that we do not have knowledge about. To jump to the conclusion that they are visitations from an extraterrestrial intelligent life is a leap too great for any rational person to make. Flights of fantasy are wonderful human imaginations, but flights of fantasy are not a way to scientifically investigate these phenomena. Let us rein in the speculation and determine the truth of these phenomena.

Consequently, communicating or visiting with extraterrestrial intelligent life, if they exist, appears to be so great a task that it is highly unlikely we can do this.

Disclaimer

Please note that my Science Articles disclaimer applies to this article, as it does to all of my science articles. These science articles are for the purposes of general scientific information that is understandable to a layperson, so that they can grasp the concepts of the topic being discussed. As such, they are neither as accurate nor as thorough as academics, scientists, engineers, and science writers strive to achieve. My hope is that these science articles will be informative and interesting, and that they will pique the reader's interest in exploring these topics in further detail via the hyperlinks that I have embedded into these articles.